Nigeria's Cooking Gas Market in November 2025: Supply Surges Amid Sharp Drop in Consumption and Lingering High Prices

 In Nigeria, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), commonly referred to as cooking gas, plays a vital role in millions of households as a cleaner and more efficient alternative to traditional fuels like kerosene, charcoal, and firewood. As the country continues its push toward greater energy accessibility and reduced reliance on dirtier energy sources, recent data from regulatory bodies highlight interesting shifts in the LPG market. According to the latest insights from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the sector experienced notable changes in supply and demand during November 2025.

The average daily supply of cooking gas in Nigeria reached approximately 4,958 metric tonnes in November 2025, marking a noticeable adjustment from higher levels seen in the previous month. This figure reflects ongoing efforts to maintain adequate availability across the country, even as the market navigates seasonal and economic pressures. Despite the moderation in overall volumes, supply continued to outpace demand, creating a surplus that industry observers say helps stabilize the broader energy landscape.

On the consumption side, there was a significant decline, with average daily usage dropping to around 3,992 metric tonnes per day. This represents a substantial reduction compared to October's figures, highlighting how external factors can quickly influence household energy choices. Many analysts attribute this drop partly to the elevated cooking gas prices that persisted through much of the year, particularly following disruptions earlier in the period.

Why Did Cooking Gas Consumption Fall So Sharply?

Several interconnected issues contributed to the reduced demand for LPG in Nigeria during November 2025. One key factor was the lingering impact of price increases that began intensifying from mid-October into early November. During that time, the cost of refilling cylinders rose considerably in many parts of the country, pushing some consumers to cut back or switch to cheaper alternatives.

Market surveys and reports from gas retailers indicated that prices at filling stations varied widely. In some areas, a kilogram of cooking gas was available for between N950 and N1,500, as noted in official regulatory overviews. However, ground-level checks revealed higher rates in certain locations, with gas plants charging N1,600 to N2,000 per kg, and street-level retailers often adding markups that brought the price to N2,500 or even N3,500 per kg. These disparities stemmed from supply chain challenges, transportation costs, and regional differences in availability.

The price surge was exacerbated by temporary disruptions in the supply chain. A notable contributor was an industrial dispute involving the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) and major facilities, including those linked to the Dangote Refinery group. The conflict, which peaked in late September and early October 2025, led to brief halts in loading and distribution activities at some gas processing sites. Although the issue was eventually resolved through negotiations, with affected workers reassigned and industrial action suspended, the ripple effects lingered.

Gas marketers reported backlogs of undelivered products and interrupted flows during the height of the disagreement. This created a temporary scarcity perception in the market, prompting some consumers to engage in panic buying out of fear that prices would climb even further. As a result, many households rationed their usage or temporarily reverted to older cooking methods, contributing to the overall drop in national consumption figures.

The Broader Impact on Nigerian Households

For everyday Nigerians, these fluctuations in the cooking gas market have real consequences. LPG has been promoted heavily under government initiatives like the Decade of Gas program, aimed at increasing penetration and encouraging a shift away from biomass fuels that contribute to deforestation and health issues like respiratory problems. Higher prices, however, make it harder for low- and middle-income families to adopt or sustain LPG use.

In urban centers like Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt, where demand is highest, the price hikes forced tough choices. Some families reduced the frequency of cooking certain meals, while others combined LPG with kerosene stoves. Rural areas, already facing lower penetration rates, saw even slower adoption. Despite the surplus in supply highlighted by the NMDPRA, end-user prices remained elevated due to distribution bottlenecks, forex challenges affecting imported components, and operational costs for marketers.

Interestingly, the regulatory report emphasized that the market remained in a net surplus position, with daily supply exceeding consumption by nearly 1,000 metric tonnes. This suggests that structural availability was not the core issue; rather, affordability and confidence in stable pricing played larger roles in driving down demand.

Looking Ahead: Opportunities for Stabilization in Nigeria's LPG Sector

As Nigeria heads into the new year, stakeholders are optimistic about potential improvements in the cooking gas landscape. The resolution of earlier labor disputes has restored smoother operations at key facilities, and increased domestic production from sources like the Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG) continues to bolster local supply. Government efforts to expand infrastructure, including more refilling plants and cylinder recirculation models, are also underway to bridge the gap between wholesale availability and retail accessibility.

Experts recommend closer monitoring of pricing mechanisms and interventions to curb excessive markups. Greater transparency in the supply chain could help rebuild consumer trust and encourage higher uptake. Additionally, subsidies or targeted support for vulnerable households during peak price periods might mitigate sharp drops in consumption.

The November 2025 data serves as a reminder of how interconnected Nigeria's energy sectors are. While challenges like industrial actions and price volatility persist, the underlying surplus positions the country well for growth in LPG adoption. With continued policy focus on clean cooking fuels, many hope that 2026 will bring more stable and affordable cooking gas prices in Nigeria, making it easier for families to enjoy the benefits of this modern energy source.